“Turkish meat inventories are declining. Lean meat will increase by at least 30%.”

Getty Images

“Most dairy farmers slaughter cattle because we are desperate and unable to get feed. By doing additional work in the construction, we can get feed for the animals.”

Last year, dairy feed increased by 138%, fattening feed increased by 160%, and carcass costs increased by 87%, according to data from the National Red Meat Council.

Hussein Efe, who has lived in agriculture for 20 years in Barkesil, says the number of livestock in his village has decreased by at least 40%.

Many Turkish producers are said to have opted to make a profit by slaughtering female animals instead of producing milk, and as the number of broodstock declines, Turkish lean meat stocks Has decreased.

Free market prices for Turkish meat range from 95-110TL / kg.

The Meat and Dairy Institution (ESK) has raised the price of lean meat by 48%, the price of 1 kilogram of minced beef from 56TL to 83TL, and the price of cubic meat from 62.5TL to 92TL.

This increase, which accounts for 1% of total lean meat sales and targets only ESK stores, is not reflected in the meat price in the market.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, which issued a statement on new price restrictions for meat and dairy institutions, also said that IHC prices would not affect meat prices in the market.

But Turkish from BBC According to industry representatives, meat prices are expected to rise by at least 30% over the next two months due to high costs and shortages.

There are many structural reasons behind this increasing expectation.

“Wrong milk policies affect meat prices”

The number of Turkish milk producers is said to have declined gradually over the last three years due to restrained milk prices and rising production costs.

Harmful milk producers are valued to reduce the number of cows and reduce the production of new animals as they find a solution by slaughtering the animals.

Sencer Solakoğlu, president of All Dairy, Meat and Cattle Breeders Association, states that very intensive cattle slaughter has occurred, especially in the last four months.

“Dairy farmers who have suffered losses over the years have begun to slaughter their broodstock intensively. As a result of these reductions, meat production has declined daily.”

“Many farms that produce meat animals have less than 50% availability. Therefore, it is currently very difficult to find meat animals for slaughter and the price of meat needs to be raised. “

Ismail Kemaloul, a former general manager of the Turkish Grain Commission (TMO) and the Meat and Dairy Research Institute (ESK), said the farm’s capacity was 40-50% and “the number of animals in the company is significant. It’s declining. “

“Supply stress will occur and meat prices will rise.”

Meat price

Getty Images

According to experts, the price of meat is expected to rise by 30-40 percent in a few months when the decline in cow numbers and the increase in demand during the tourist season add to the high costs.

“When the expected number of tourists arrives, the weight of meat can easily reach 150 TL, as supply problems are likely to become more serious,” said Kemaloğlu.

“We calculate that meat prices will rise by at least 30% by the end of May as the tourist season begins and animal inventories are kept to a minimum,” said Sorakoul.

Turkish from BBC Ahmet Hacıince, President of the National Red Meat Council, who issued the written statement, disagrees.

“There seems to be a problem with the supply of lean meat this season. The current animal inventory is at a level that can meet the demand.”

“But if animal slaughter accelerates due to unsustainable milk prices, lean meat supply can be problematic in the supply of fattening calves, the main lean meat. It may not reach a sufficient level. Meat source, 1-1, 5 years later. “

It is an economic requirement that prices may fluctuate due to the current economic situation and rising input costs, but speculative increases are not expected.

Hacıince also states that if the demand for lean meat is not sufficient for citizens’ income levels and purchasing power, prices will not rise as much as necessary.

On the other hand, according to sector representatives, meat and dairy products are not expensive in Turkey, but rather cheaper than in Europe.

“Today, a kilo of baklava costs 150-200 TL, but meat is not expensive,” said Kemaloğlu, who states that the main issue is the purchasing power of citizens.

Rising prices for lean meat at Hacıince. It states less than an increase in feed, energy, labor and fuel.

“The cost is high and we rely on feed imports.”

In Turkey, 26.5 million tonnes of compound feed are consumed annually by livestock, and 50-55% of this feed is composed of imported raw materials.

Solakoğlu states that 85% of Turkish livestock breeders have less than 10 cattle and that dozens of SMEs crushed under cost pressure have been closed.

“According to data from the International Farm Comparison Network (IFCN), the cost of raising livestock in Turkey is 23 percent higher than the world average.”

“The burden of increased costs is currently behind the farmers, but in the end these will be reflected in the price and will eventually become a trend towards consumers again.”

Hussein Efe, who earns a living from livestock, also explains that the cost of livestock has become unbearable.

“Last year, the price of barley rose 300%. You can’t feed barley to animals. I used to buy barley in tons, but now I can buy it in bags. Hay prices start at 80. It has risen 100%. Diesel has risen. From 7 lira to 22 lira in a year. The cost of medicine and treatment is very high. High school. “

Efe states that he sells the weight of his milk for 4.35 TL and that the feed weighs 6 TL.

“You can’t buy 1 kilogram of feed from 1 kilogram of milk. If you buy 10,000 TL of animal feed for milk, you’ll earn 9,800 from sales. Straw, labor, and medication.”

“He puts 20 cows in the barn and reduces them to 10, and then uses 10 cows to reduce them to 5. The other few are looking for ways to completely close them. Everyone I want to reduce the number of animals. Nobody wants to increase it. “

“Peasants sign decisions for feed debt”

Efe explains that many meat and milk producers in the village could not pay the debt to feed the seller and had to sign a promissory note.

“The feed company borrowed by our villagers began to confiscate the animals of those who couldn’t repay their debts. They bought all the animals and promissory notes if they weren’t enough to repay their debts. make.”

“Our relatives closed his business and handed out his sheep, but he still made a promissory note because he couldn’t pay his debt. This came to this. “

“We can’t make our own feed, even if we want. Everyone is short of fertilizer. Last year, a bag of urea fertilizer was 90 lira, but now it’s 650 lira. Harvest Sometimes no one can get a high yield .. “

“Import is not a solution”

According to UKON data, carcass slaughter prices range from 80 to 82 TL / kg in Turkey, but in overseas markets this number ranges from 5 to 6 euros / kg.

In this regard, imported meat is considered “not an economic solution” to possible problems with Turkey’s meat supply, and meat prices will rise by 30-40%.

UKON states that Turkey’s meat supply is fine in the short term, but other experts say that Turkey’s lean meat data is “not transparent.”

Solakoğlu states that due to data uncertainty, expectations regarding the price of lean meat are also based on speculation.

“The Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry does not have an inventory of the number of animals Turkey actually owns. The industry as a whole is discussing price increases over the next two months due to supply shortages and high demand, which is a farm. Based on observations in .. “.

Kemaloğlu said that TÜ0054K has not disclosed Turkey’s meat production data for the past few years, “Yes, official figures show constant inventories, but the actual situation of the supply-demand balance shows the best market. I am. “

Why did the meat and dairy institutions get higher?

Solakoğlu states that IHC has long sold meat at restrained prices, but this increase is “expected” in terms of fair competition in the free economy.

Most of IHC’s sales go to the Department of Defense and Gendarmerie, according to information provided by Ottoman Uzun, general manager of the meat and dairy institution, to the agricultural writer Ali Ekbel Jurdurum of the Dunya newspaper. General manager, there is no sale to the chain market.

Mr. Uzun said that sales to the market are very low, “Because we sell meat that is 66% cheaper than the market, there is a long line in the store,” and the price increase is “unavoidable.” It states that it has become.

“ESK is actually a market regulator, just like TMO, but it can’t determine prices in the free market. The selling point of ESK is very high,” said Kemarowl, a former meat and dairy association general manager. Limited to. “

IHC states that it is responsible for being a market regulator of meat and dairy products by monitoring parameters such as producer costs, sustainability thresholds and inflation, and Kemaloğlu has recently suspended this function. I am evaluating it.