The new proposal is most profitable for AKP and forces opponents to develop strategies


AKP and MHP have submitted a long-standing proposal and lowered the election threshold from 10% to 7%.

The 10% threshold has been used for many years to keep HDP and its predecessor parties away from parliament and has not changed.

Since 2002, dams have primarily benefited AKP. AKP won a majority of eastern and southeastern parliamentarians as HDP and its predecessors participated in the election with independent candidates, believing that the threshold could not be crossed. AKP also melted the right-wing party that had the dam problem. Parties that did not participate in the AKP but were unable to cross the threshold weakened in the process and lost their effectiveness.

From the order that drove CHP to the alliance

With the transition to the presidential system in 2018, AKP and MHP, which promised to end the coalition and bring stability, formed a People’s Union and participated in the election together. During this time, CHP, who criticized it as a coalition in a sense, was pressured to “form an alliance.” The CHP and the IYI Party have formed the National Alliance under these conditions.

The system, which is still valid and applied in the presidential and last general elections, is beneficial to the alliance, and the People’s Union believed it would benefit them. The system examined the votes of the alliance in each constituency and calculated the number of agents for which the alliance was calculated. Next, we looked at the votes of the parties in the constituency’s alliance and decided how many members each party had.

When Alliance Voting Benefits CHP

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In the 2018 general election, AKP elected 295 members and MHP49. According to calculations, if the vote was counted as a party rather than an alliance, AKP would have an additional 12 members and MHP would have an additional five.

Meanwhile, it was calculated that the CHP, which issued 146 agents, had an additional 13 and the IYI party, which had 43 agents, had an additional nine.

HDPs not part of the alliance could also remove 5 fewer proxies than would normally win for the system.

How does the new system work?

For example, in this system, if 140,000 votes are cast in the elector, where three agents are elected, the alliance’s votes will be considered.

If one of the alliances receives 90,000 votes and the other 50,000 votes, how many votes will be calculated. If there are an average of 45,000 members in this election environment, the first alliance appoints two members and the second alliance appoints one member. Then look at the turnout of the parties that form the alliance and decide which party the agent will go to.

The proposal no longer focuses on the votes of the parties, not the votes of the alliance. If AKP wins 80,000 votes in this election environment and the other parties maintain around 15,000 votes, AKP will win all three seats. In this example, even if the number of votes is divided into three, AKP, which has more votes than other parties, can elect more members than it wins in the alliance.

AKP relies on the large capacity of this system. MHP, on the other hand, guarantees that it can exceed the threshold on its own. A threshold of 7% gives MHP this guarantee.

Party of 6 people

Under these circumstances, the CHP, IYI Party, DEVA Party, Future Party, Felicity Party, and Democratic Party, which have signed the Memorandum of Understanding for the Strengthening Parliament, need to decide their strategies.

According to previous election results, if these parties form an alliance to participate in the election, Brock’s votes are high, but the party’s independent votes are much lower than AKP in many constituencies.

In particular, DEVA, Future, Saadet and Democrats, who seem to have exceeded their limits thanks to the alliance, are at high risk of not being able to appoint an agent.

For this reason, if the bill is passed in its current form, it will be clear that a joint candidate list will be issued in some constituencies.

Election Commission and Observer

The new election system will also reorganize state and district election commissions. Observers of one party may not work on behalf of another party without approval. This will prevent some political parties from placing observers in polls where organizations are vulnerable.

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