The final explanation about fuel prices! Brent crude oil prices, which hit a record high of $ 134 in the Russian-Ukraine War, hit $ 122 last week.
$ 15 drop
The barrel price of oil, which traded at $ 122.12 a day in the international market last week, has fallen to the level of $ 107 today.
Chinese effect
The introduction of a curfew in Shanghai, China, was effective in lowering prices in the face of an increase in Kovid-19 cases.
In China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, the measures taken in the face of rising Kovid-19 cases are worried about lower demand and pressure to lower prices.
Attention at OPEC + meetings
At Petroleum, all attention is paid to the OPEC + conference on Thursday. OPEC + appears to stick to a modest increase in oil production in May, despite rising prices due to the Ukraine crisis and consumer supply demand.
OPEC +, which has raised its monthly production target of 400,000 barrels since August last year, agreed to increase production by 432,000 barrels a day at a meeting in May last year. Many oil-consuming countries, including the United States, are urging producers to increase their production as crude oil prices have risen above $ 139 a barrel this month.
Expected to have a discount on fuel prices
As crude oil prices fall, fuel prices are expected to fall sharply as crude oil prices fall. Discounts will lower gasoline and diesel prices.
1-How is the fuel price determined?
Prices are shaped to take into account the formation of the closest accessible world free market since 2005. The prices of all fuel products are affected by fluctuations in crude oil prices, but the prices of each product are determined individually according to the balance between supply and demand. Refinery prices are determined by the refinery within the framework of a particular methodology and set a precedent for gasoline and diesel prices on the Mediterranean coast, the closest accessible free world market.
2-Why are prices falling and rising?
Fluctuations experienced in the international market within the framework of refinery price methodologies are not immediately reflected in domestic prices. According to the pricing methodology, refinery owners do not change prices as long as the average reference price is within a certain range.
3-Is the crude oil or Brent determined by Genova decisive in price?
There is a misunderstanding here. There is a high positive correlation between product prices and crude oil prices. Brent prices are accepted as an indicator of crude oil prices. On the other hand, the factor that directly determines the formation of fuel prices in Turkey and influences domestic prices is not the price of (crude oil) oil, but the price of “processed oil”, that is, the price of gasoline. And diesel oil in the international market. Therefore, price fluctuations of Brent crude oil may not be reflected in processed products at the same rate. For this reason, it is not realistic to predict changes in refinery prices based on Brent crude oil prices alone.
4-Where will this price be announced?
The prices of refined gasoline and diesel products formed on the Mediterranean coast (Genoa / Labela) are used as the basis for the formation of reference prices, which are the basis of refinery sales (exit) prices. In the global oil market, S & P Global Platts (Platz) is regarded as a reference data provider and has a significant impact on the formation of market prices. For this reason, Turkish refiners use Platts data for pricing. A refinery license holder’s fuel selling price follow-up will convert the daily price published on the Platts European Market Scan under the title CIF MED (Genova / Lavera) to TL (TL / ton) in USD / ton. .. I received the forex selling price announced by the central bank.
5-How is it included in the midnight price?
Off-refinition prices are calculated taking into account Genova prices and the foreign exchange sales rates announced by CBRT. On the day, the average price for a certain number of days from the previous day is compared with the reference price on the latest price determination date, and if the deviation exceeds a certain size, the new price-the refinery price will be determined. The refinery price change will be reflected in the pump and will be effective from 00:00 the next day. Changes in final fuel selling prices that occur up and down due to changes in gasoline and diesel product prices or exchange rates, and changes in gasoline and diesel product prices in the Mediterranean Sea drainage basin (Genova / Labela). The new price will come into effect and the CBRT changes will be announced. This is determined based on the dollar selling rate. Convert the price obtained by multiplying the price of gasoline and diesel products by the dollar exchange rate into liters, add the SCT and income share, and add VAT to the taxable off-refined price. Fuel distribution prices are obtained by adding the distributor margin and 18% VAT to the taxable off-refining price. To reach the fuel distributor’s price, a distributor’s margin and 18% VAT will be added to the fuel distribution price.
6-What if crude oil is depleted or reflected in the same rate price?
The prices of all types of oil in the oil market are affected by fluctuations in crude oil prices, but the price formation of each product is formed separately according to the supply and demand mechanism. Many factors that influence price formation are also known to play a role in this process. There is a high positive correlation between the prices of gasoline and diesel products and the prices of crude oil. In a statistical survey using historical data, the correlation between Brent crude oil prices and unleaded gasoline prices was 90%, and the correlation between diesel prices and diesel prices was 96%.
7-How much does a rising currency raise or lower prices?
Changes in domestic prices are directly affected by fluctuations in product prices in the international market and the US dollar / TL exchange rate.
The reason for the rise in prices due to the fall of $ 8- is that fuel prices are low during the dollar exchange period. What is the reason for this?
In addition to the dollar rate, product prices in the international market also directly affect domestic prices. Industry experts say the abolition of scale mobile systems, which apply to the amount of SCT included in the price of fuel products, also contributed to the formation of this perception. The Eşel mobile system is implemented in the form of a decrease in SCT as prices outside the refinery increase and vice versa. The amount of SCT was 2.0559 TL / liter for diesel and 2.5265 TL / liter for gasoline, but it decreased to 0 due to the rise in refinery prices. On December 22, 2021, the Echel mobile system, which had been in use for about 3.5 years, was gradually removed. When the dollar rate peaks on 20-21 December 2021, the SCT amount, which is zero for scale mobile systems, is now applied as 2.0559 TL / liter for diesel and 2.5265 TL / liter for gasoline.
9-How does fuel price affect consumption?
There are no statistical studies. However, on days when prices are known to rise the next day, it can reach up to 1.5 times average sales.
..